Week 9 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

Chris Roling@@Chris_RolingFeatured ColumnistNovember 5, 2016

Week 9 looks like a great chance for bettors to gain momentum.
Week 9 looks like a great chance for bettors to gain momentum.Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

From the onset, Week 9 looked like a rather simple one for bettors.

Sometimes an easy-looking slate proves simplistic, and more importantly, profitable. Week 9 started this way, with a Thursday Night Football NFC South showcase between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which at one point had the latter favored by a few points. 

The Falcons won, 43-28.

Normally this might advise caution. This isn't most weeks, though, with a handful of simple matchups on deck and exploitable lines to grab before it's too late. Here's a full look at the remaining schedule before a focus on some of the best options.

      

NFL Week 9 Odds

MatchupSpreadO/UPredicted Winner
Dallas at ClevelandDAL -7.547DAL 30-14
Pittsburgh at BaltimoreBAL -343PIT 28-20
Philadelphia at N.Y. GiantsNYG -343PHI 21-20
Detroit at MinnesotaMIN -641MIN 27-23
N.Y. Jets at MiamiMIA -444MIA 20-17
Jacksonville at Kansas CityKC -7.545.5KC 33-20
New Orleans at San FranciscoNO -351NO 27-20
Carolina at L.A. RamsCAR -345LA 23-20
Tennessee at San DiegoSD -4.547SD 26-17
Indianapolis at Green BayGB -7.554GB 30-17
Denver at OaklandOAK -143.5OAK 24-20
Buffalo at SeattleSEA -744SEA 24-21
Odds Shark; author's projections. Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Washington, New England, Houston on bye.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

      

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-7.5)

A bet against the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars, provided the spread isn't too outlandish, always seems like a good move.

Bettors might find pause here because the Kansas City Chiefs won't have quarterback Alex Smith under center due to injury, according to BJ Kissel of the Chiefs' official website.

The absence won't make much of a difference. Backup Nick Foles entered a game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8 and threw for 223 yards and a pair of scores. Spencer Ware looked great with 511 yards and two scores while averaging five yards per carry, but he will miss the game, per Kissel. This leaves the duties to the more-than-capable Charcandrick West.

Also present in this matchup? The Jaguars. The team owns a defense allowing averages of 124.7 rushing yards and 28.0 points per game.

Jacksonville, offensively speaking, doesn't have the firepower to keep pace on the road. Blake Bortles looks like he has regressed under center, throwing 12 touchdowns to nine interceptions, while a stud weapon such as Allen Robinson hasn't done much of note. The ground game hasn't even averaged four yards per carry.

In the end, Kansas City wasn't going to lean on the passing attack to get this win either way. Smith's absence might make the headlines before the game, but West's rushing is sure to make them after.

Prediction: Chiefs 33-20

       

New Orleans (-3) at San Francisco

It has reached the point where bettors can slap the San Francisco 49ers with the Jaguars and Cleveland Browns as automatic bets.

A blowout win to start the season suggested otherwise for the 49ers, but it remains the team's only win of the season. Losers of six straight, five of the six losses haven't even been close, and by "close" meaning the smallest margin was seven points.

San Francisco has a weird Blaine Gabbert-Colin Kaepernick thing going on at quarterback, which has produced seven touchdowns and interceptions. The running game is missing in action, and the defense allows stunning averages of 185.1 rushing yards and 31.3 points per game, both planting the unit last in the league.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints have gone in the opposite direction, winning three of four. The three were impressive, too, taking down the San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.

Drew Brees has looked like his normal self with 18 touchdowns to five picks and a 69.5 completion percentage, but more recent attention goes to what looks like a newfound committee in the backfield:

NAMEATTYDSAVGTD
Mark Ingram893393.81
Tim Hightower451894.20
ESPN.com.

San Francisco won't have any answer for the attack, especially not while needing to keep a close eye on Brees through the air.

New Orleans remains one of those teams that sometimes can't get out of its own way. It's why the Saints dropped three games to start the season. But bettors should look at this Saints team as one with it figured out going into one of its easiest games of the year.

Prediction: Saints 27-20

      

Indianapolis at Green Bay (-7.5)

Remember how those Colts gave up two passing scores to Foles, Kansas City's backup?

Imagine what Aaron Rodgers will do.

It's easy to look at the Green Bay Packers and say the team has lost two of its last three. True, but the most recent was a last-second loss to a contending Atlanta Falcons team on the road by all of one point.

Not to mention Green Bay's top three corners, two running backs, two wide receivers and Clay Matthews missed the game. Despite all this, Rodgers has reversed his early-season woes, tossing eight touchdowns to one pick over the last three games and earned praise from head coach Mike McCarthy, as the team's official Twitter account captured:

Andrew Luck hasn't been able to pull off a similar feat for the Colts, also losers in two of their last three. He's taken a jaw-dropping 31 sacks so far this year and has found a way to throw 16 touchdowns to five interceptions anyway, only to be let down by a putrid defense allowing an average of 28.8 points per game.

Given the direction of both teams, few can criticize Luck if the Colts come up short Sunday. But it's going to happen, as an improving Rodgers meets a terrible defense, and his defense gets to bully one of the league's worst offensive lines.

Prediction: Packers 30-17

       

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus

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